It has been 11 months since our region was ambushed by the intensity of Tropical Storm Irene followed closely by Tropical Storm Lee. We were relieved when the winds proved less fierce than predicted, and then stunned as the rivers rose. We watched almost helplessly as houses, crops and businesses were destroyed, roads, bridges and farms washed out, and lives lost in raging waters.
An acquaintance said, "Well that was our hundred-year flood, so we don't need to worry about this again in our lifetime."
Oh, yes, we do.
The likelihood of a "hundred-year flood" occurring again this year is statistically the same as it was last year — or 10 years ago, as we experience the bracing effects of climate change. Flood maps for our region have just been revised to show larger areas at greater risk.
Last week, the National Academy of Sciences released a report titled "Disaster Resilience: A National Imperative." I was privileged to be a member of the committee that generated this report. For nearly two years, a group ranging from engineers to geologists to political scientists to anthropologists and public health professionals explored the data related to disasters in the United States, including visits to affected communities in Louisiana, Mississippi, Iowa and California.
In 2011 alone, more than 14 natural disasters in the U.S. cost an estimated $1 billion in damages, along with injuries and loss of lives. The committee defined resilience as "the ability to prepare for and plan for, absorb, recover from or more successfully adapt to actual or potential adverse events. This definition is intended to include events such as acts of terrorism, or public health emergencies such as the pandemic."
The committee generated a report with findings and recommendations for improving national resilience ranging from local to federal levels. A key finding for our region is that households and communities must be prepared to be self-sufficient for three to five days following a major emergency.
I think we did pretty well on this with the Irene/Lee challenge. Other areas leave me more concerned about our preparation for the future.
We need to pay attention to our infrastructure, ranging from building codes to where we choose to build or rebuild. Building or rebuilding on a flood plain does not make sense. Increasingly communities are choosing to create recreational facilities and public parks on areas that flood repeatedly — a much more sensible use of this land. Yet I do not see this consideration being discussed in our region.
What about recovery?
Some of our businesses, homeowners and farmers are still suffering. How are we helping them? Can we use U.S. Rep. Paul Tonko's Mighty Waters initiative as a springboard for sensible use of our floodplains and emergency preparedness?
We need to pay attention to planning. The committee found the communities that had engaged in disaster preparation with public and private sectors, education, business health, and community members were far more effective in responding to disasters.
At The Sage Colleges, we engage in disaster exercises and have emergency plans. We have not, to my knowledge, been asked to participate in broader community and regional exercises. We need to do this as a region and in our local communities. Among other things, such exercises increase trust and communication between all parties involved. During Irene and Lee, we experienced communication breakdowns around the extent of the risk and the need for evacuation. Also, some evacuation routes were rendered unusable by the storms and it was not clear which alternatives were available.
What are our communication plans if there is no power?
How do we plan to evacuate people dependent on public transportation? How will we get access to medical records for people with chronic and acute illnesses?
Planning is essential for families, neighborhoods, communities and our region. I hope the "Disaster Resilience" report results in concerted action at all these levels, including "table top" exercises and disaster simulations.
No, we are not prepared for the next Irene.
Susan C. Scrimshaw is president of The Sage Colleges.