When I met Henrique Capriles in 2009, he was already being touted as the man most likely to challenge Hugo Chavez in the 2012 presidential elections. You could quickly understand why. Even though the refurbished elementary school holding the rally on that Sunday afternoon was in Chavez territory, Capriles' arrival was met with the cheers, screams and dancing that you'd expect for a rock star. The charismatic young opposition leader felt comfortable in his skin and his informal style exuded confidence.
Though he was three years from that presidential race, he already knew how to deliver the lines that made Venezuelans from this hardscrabble corner of the countryside roar. Capriles opened by recounting a story of a worker who had recently told him that, "I love Chavez, but I love you, too." Capriles explained that was OK. "Sometimes a man falls in love with two or three women or a woman falls in love with two or three men. It's all right — it's part of life."
But on Sunday there wasn't enough love for the handsome 40-year-old governor. Hugo Chavez won his fourth bid for the presidency, with 54 percent of the vote to Capriles' 45 percent. Capriles did make inroads. Chavez, for example, only added 135,000 votes from his 2006 election total, while the opposition won nearly 1.9 million more votes.
The question now is this: What will Chavez seek to do with another six years in power? It would be nice to imagine that losing nearly half the country would moderate him. That in his weakened positioned — both physically and politically — Chavez would seek to reconcile with the more than 6 million Venezuelans who feel betrayed by the last 14 years.
That is not going to happen. Chavez doesn't want to tamp down Venezuela's polarized politics. He thrives in it.
The fact that Chavez now finds himself leading roughly half of Venezuela against the other half of Venezuela isn't a problem for him — it's more fuel for his fire.
As Gen. Raul Baduel, Chavez's former friend and defense minister told me from his jail cell in 2010, "His specialty is tanks and armored vehicles. That is the type of weaponry he knows. ... The concept is to roll over your adversaries, to flatten them. That's his approach, to flatten his enemies."
Although he wants to be president for life, Chavez's likely life expectancy is now a secret between him and his Cuban doctors. Many members of the opposition expect nothing short of a full assault after this newest election.
Will Chavez resort to political bans, barring some from standing for office? Will selective corruption investigations be launched against people in the private sector who were too vocal in their support of the opposition? Will there be another wave of nationalizations, as the president's administration looks for new resources to keep Chavez Inc. afloat?
In a regime that rules through so much uncertainty, no one can say. Maybe as Chavez gets closer to meeting Marx, he will mellow. It's possible, but there is nothing in his history to suggest it. He is only becoming more dependent on these authoritarian tactics. The truth is Venezuela will probably have to get much worse before it can get better.
William J. Dobson writes for Slate.