Regarding the benefits of casino gambling in New York, Gov. Andrew Cuomo's magic number is very large and easy to remember. It's one billion. That's the number of dollars of economic activity that the new casinos will allegedly generate.
In June of 2012, in his Progress Report to the state, the governor announced that changing the state constitution to permit casino gambling would "generate an estimated $1 billion in economic activity." In his 2013 State of the State report, he repeated the claim: "It is estimated that over $ 1 billion of economic activity can be generated from casino gambling."
This number stands out for three reasons. The first is its size and majesty. One billion! The second is its solidity. In a debate largely devoid of specifics, here is something concrete, something we can hang our hats on. One billion. And the third is its isolation. The number is unaccompanied by conditions or qualifications. One billion — over what period of time? A year? A decade? And based on how many casinos in which locations? Three casinos upstate and one big one in New York City? Or some other set of assumptions? None of this information is attached. The number simply operates on its own, like a beautiful eagle flying through an empty sky. One billion.
People who conduct studies and issue reports on such matters work hard to establish a credible methodology for their work. The issues involved can be complex.
Let's briefly consider just one.
If I open a new hamburger joint in the neighborhood, that will generate economic activity. But if my new establishment drives an already existing hamburger joint out of business, the amount of overall economic activity in the neighborhood might change very little, if at all. Economists use the term "substitution" to describe this possibility, and any researcher who wants his or her work to be taken seriously must handle this issue (and many others like it) competently. So what is the methodology behind the claim of one billion? And who did the research?
Finding the answer required some digging. In most cases, the governor simply says what he says, and that's that.
But in the written version of his 2013 State of the State, buried in a footnote, we can actually discover the source and meaning of the governor's assertion that "over $ 1 billion of economic activity can be generated from casino gambling."
The source is the New York Gaming Association, the organization created in 2011 to lobby in Albany for casino expansion. Its members are the owners of New York's nine race-track casinos.
There is no study, no report, not even a piece of paper. Just James Featherstonhaugh, the association's president, and several other association members talking with two reporters from the Albany Business Review in late 2011.
The story itself reads like a parody.
Here is Daniel Gerrity, the majority owner of the Saratoga Casino and Raceway, on the economic benefits of changing the constitution: "It would definitely increase our business. We are steadily growing, and this is a natural progression." Others offering their expert economic assessments include Featherstonhaugh, who is also an owner of the Saratoga Casino and Raceway, and Jeffrey Gural, who owns race tracks and casinos in the towns of Nichols and Vernon, New York.
Does anyone have a hard time seeing the problem here?
Q: Mr. Prisoner, we're considering letting you out of prison? What do you think?
A: Terrific idea! It would supercharge the economy! It would make everyone's taxes go down!
Press Release: Governor Cuomo today said that New Yorkers' taxes would plummet dramatically if only the state would ....
Q: Mr. Fox, we're considering letting you into the henhouse? Do you approve?
A: Yes! It would boost tourism and protect the planet!
Press Release: Governor Cuomo today released a comprehensive plan to boost tourism and protect endangered species in upstate New York ....
Surely any person of good will can recognize that, if the question is whether to give economic privilege to a particular group, we shouldn't depend on that group, and that group alone, for an objective assessment of the pros and cons of giving them the privilege.
And what does this episode tell us about Gov. Cuomo? In most states, governors who want gambling at least go through the motions of proper due diligence. They have a study to cite. They hold a hearing or two. They give a speech that qualifies as serious, they face some questions from the public.
They at least pretend to be listening to someone other than the casino owners themselves. But so far it appears that Gov. Cuomo can't even be bothered go through the motions. He is intent on doing this thing, and if doing it means saying things like "more than $1 billion," he's simply going to say them, and apparently we are supposed to like it.
It's pretty insulting.
David Blankenhorn is president of the Institute for American Values in New York City and the author of the forthcoming "New York's Promise: Why State Sponsorship of Casinos is a Regressive Policy Unworthy of a Great State."