There is no satisfaction in having predicted two years ago that municipal bankruptcies were coming. Detroit's fiscal collapse was inevitable for reasons nicely put by Rochester Mayor Tom Richards early last year: "Cities will first face cultural and social bankruptcy before they encounter financial bankruptcy."
That's hitting the nail on the head. Unfortunately for the mayor and New York's cities, nothing good has happened since. Our state policy toward cities teetering on the edge is to holler at them and lend them money they can't repay.
Our cities are in various stages of financial disarray. Some will limp through, some won't. The same is true for counties, school districts, towns and villages across the state. Just ask state Comptroller Tom DiNapoli, who has put together a growing list of "distressed municipalities." The smart money says that the crisis will emerge in a small and unknown school district or rural village, and only then will the alarm bells be rung.
Richards talked about "cultural and social bankruptcy." That's an interesting concept. I think it means that we first undermine our values, our sense of community and our civic institutions. Thereafter, we stop paying our financial debts and all hell breaks loose. But the damage began years before.
The mayor might have also talked about "political bankruptcy." For all the justifiable talk about thievery and philandering in the political class, the real damage is being done by leaders who won't face these realities. If, as a matter of fact, the budget gaps in places like Yonkers, Syracuse, Binghamton, Albany, and Nassau and Rockland counties are as large and unbridgeable as they appear to be, the phrase "political bankruptcy" attaches to anyone who pretends otherwise.
It's understandable that folks want to know how things got so tough in Detroit or in New York. There's plenty of blame to spread around. Irresponsible and dishonest local budgets, cuts in state aid, skyrocketing labor, health and retirement costs, bad bank lending policies, it goes on. But even without them, the collapse of the urban economy is real and permanent. Syracuse lost Carrier, Rochester lost Kodak, Yonkers lost Otis Elevator, and with them those places lost the property tax revenues that funded schools, police, fire and sanitation workers. You don't address that reality, you get nowhere.
There are powerful voices who have responded to the municipal crisis by asserting that the problem is solely irresponsible and excessive spending. Those who hold contrary views are told they are seeking "handouts." Tax cuts for corporations and slashed municipal budgets are just the ticket. Add to that a program to have cities borrow to pay current pension costs and you've got a prescription for bankruptcy of all kinds.
There's a level of nonsense here that rises to the "political bankruptcy." Sure there's excessive spending, sure there are irresponsible locals, but there are also eroded tax bases, high demand for social services, and the need for public safety and investment in our kid's future. The folks talking about those problems are not beggars seeking handouts.
So, if we listen to mayors like Richards, Yonkers' Mike Spano, Syracuse's Stephanie Miner and others, we have a choice. One the one hand, slogans and austerity policies that would please the Tea Party. On the other, a real conversation about all the problems with all the players, with real pain on the table.
Social, cultural, and political bankruptcy come before financial bankruptcy.
And in New York, we're one third of the way to bankruptcy court.
Are you listening up there?
Richard Brodsky, formerly a state assemblyman, is a fellow at the Demos think tank in New York City and at the Wagner School at New York University.