Who ever thought you could put Carl Paladino and Dan Cantor in the same sentence?
Paladino is the top-of-your-lungs right-winger who crashed and burned against Andrew Cuomo in the 2010 gubernatorial race; Cantor is the low-key operative who heads the state's increasingly powerful Working Families Party. Both men are flexing muscle as the 2014 election takes center stage, and a lot rides on what they decide.
Paladino has jumped into the interesting if irrelevant fight for the soul of New York's diminished Republican Party. He's accusing everyone else of being a RINO (Republican In Name Only), largely because they don't seem angry enough. There's not a lot of ideology at stake; most New York Republicans are way to the right. Here it's a shouting match between individuals who don't like each other. Paladino is threatening to run as a Conservative if he doesn't get his way. That will turn an inevitable Cuomo victory into an electoral meltdown for the GOP.
Cantor and the WFP have a more delicate problem. Cuomo's left-wing credentials on social issues (gay marriage, abortion, guns) are very good. On economic issues, not so much. He's embraced tax and spending cuts, corporate welfare and a tough approach on unions. In spite of the progressive ascendancy we've been seeing on the Democratic side — Bill de Blasio's mayoral victory in New York City, increasingly progressive views among Democratic primary voters — Cuomo's 2014 budget will likely contain a new round of Republican-ish tax and spending cuts, rather than education and municipal aid.
Cantor and WFP have to decide whether to endorse Cuomo. It makes their political life easier (they need 50,000 votes for their gubernatorial candidate to maintain their ballot line), but muddies the ideological water. If they nominate their own progressive candidate, their left-wing credentials are strengthened, but Cuomo becomes an enemy as he prepares to run for President.
None of this will affect the outcome of the election. Cuomo will win easily, no matter what Paladino or Cantor do. But the viability of the Conservative Party and WFP will have important long range impacts. The Conservative Party could regain its effective control of the Republican Party and WFP could ensure that progressive economic policies remain the heart of the Democratic message. Or not.
The more likely outcome is a clean contest between Cuomo, D-WFP, and Westchester's Rob Astorino, R-C. The Conservative Party chairman, Mike Long, is too savvy to let Paladino drag down the entire Republican ticket. Cuomo is likely to offer WFP a version of campaign finance reform in return for their line and a discreet silence about his tax cutting budget.
I'm not sure this is the best outcome. New York needs a two-party system, and a Republican Party without an ideological heart can't compete. Only the Conservative Party can police the GOP and keep it reliably to the right. A Paladino candidacy may be suicide in 2014, but the path to resurrection thereafter.
New York also needs a Democratic Party that rejects the Republican austerity policies that have done so much damage. If the WFP surrenders on those issues in 2014, even a good campaign reform bill will be cold comfort for schools, health care and anyone who isn't rich.
Third parties have ensured that New York's politics are about more than which candidate wins an election. As big money becomes more and more powerful, third parties guarantee that we will argue about the things that matter in the lives of people.
So Carl and Dan, go have a beer and figure out how to keep the rest of us on our toes. We may not know it, but we need you.
Richard Brodsky is a fellow at the Demos think tank in New York City and at the Wagner School at New York University.