The unexpected shellacking of House Republican Majority Leader Eric Cantor was a genuine earthquake. Pundits will explain it variously, as evidence of their various, pre-existing political views. It's much more interesting than that. It may even be important, but that's not clear.
Only in the right-wing echo chamber can Cantor be viewed as insufficiently conservative. He's been the Republicans' brains and brawn for repeal of the New Deal, the Great Society and Obamacare, and the architect of the most contentious and confrontational legislative tactics in recent memory.
But primaries are the place where ideas really bubble to the surface, and where committed minorities can shape the debate. So it was in Virginia. Cantor probably fell from a combination of heretical views on immigration (let minor children stay) and his role as majority leader (it kept him a little remote from his district). "Amnesty" was not to be tolerated. A tea party true believer named David Brat focused on amnesty was outspent 40-to-1 and still beat him.
This occurs just as New York is entering primary season. Congressional primaries in both parties occur in a week. Primaries for governor and the Legislature are in September, but that's where the action is.
Until last week, there were few primaries involving incumbents. Now, flowing out of the Working Families Party convention, it is possible — though not certain — that we are in for an interesting summer. Gov. Andrew Cuomo and New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio committed to a Democratic Senate, one way or another. Preferable is a reunification of regular Democrats with the Independent Democratic Conference, four breakaway Senators who joined a coalition with the Republicans. But de Blasio is pushing for primary challenges against IDC members Jeff Klein, Diane Savino, Dave Carlucci and Dave Valesky if there's no deal. Cuomo is hedging, partially to keep relationships alive during the legislative session and partially because primary challenges are a double-edged sword.
Cuomo may face a challenge from the left about his supply-side economic policies from Zephyr Teachout, whose potential Working Families Party candidacy gave the WFP leverage that it used to extract legislative concessions from Cuomo. Democratic statewide primaries have an unpredictable streak. Even Hillary Clinton faced an opponent who got 17 percent of the vote. Teachout has a fetching economic message but is inexperienced and not heavily funded. But then again, so was the guy who beat Cantor.
The differences between Klein and Cuomo and Cantor are many. So are the differences between Democrats in New York and Republicans in Virginia. But there are arguments about Cuomo's economic agenda and Klein's empowerment of Republicans that resemble the arguments that brought down Cantor. Ideas and committed minorities exist in New York as well as Virginia.
What's most important is that these conflicts are about actual ideas, with actual consequences for the people of the state. If these primaries occur, New Yorkers will have to choose, to think about how they want their party and their state to behave. The message of Virginia is that no candidate, no matter how well known, well funded or well liked, can ignore those ideas and the voters who support them. And that is a good thing.
Brodsky is a fellow at the Demos think tank in New York City and at the Wagner School at New York University.