The Obama team has clearly struggled with its Syria policy, but this is a wickedly complex problem. We need a policy response that simultaneously deters another Syrian poison gas attack, doesn't embroil the United States in the Syrian civil war and also doesn't lead to the sudden collapse of the Syrian state with all its chemical weapons, or, worse, a strengthening of the Syrian regime and its allies Hezbollah and Iran.
However, I think President Barack Obama has the wrong strategy for threading that needle. He's seeking congressional support for a one-time "shock and awe" missile attack against Syrian military targets. The right strategy is "arm and shame."
Count me with the activists on the question of whether the United States should respond to the Syrian regime's murder of some 1,400 civilians with poison gas. If there is no global response to this breaching of a universal taboo on using poison gas, the world will be a much more dangerous place. And only the U.S. can spearhead a credible response: Russia and China have rendered the U.N. Security Council meaningless; Europe is a military museum; the Arab League is worthless; all others are spectators.
The most likely option for Syria is some kind of de facto partition, with the pro-Assad, predominantly Alawite Syrians controlling one region and the Sunni and Kurdish Syrians controlling the rest. But the Sunnis are themselves divided between the pro-Western, secular Free Syrian Army, which we'd like to see win, and the pro-Islamist and pro-al-Qaida jihadist groups, like the Nusra Front, which we'd like to see lose.
That's why I think the best response to the use of poison gas by President Bashar Assad is an increase in the training and arming of the Free Syrian Army. Better arming responsible rebel units can really hurt the Assad regime in a sustained way without exposing the U.S. to global opprobrium for bombing Syria. It enables the rebels to protect themselves more effectively. It might increase the influence on the ground of the more moderate opposition groups — and eventually may put more pressure on Assad, or his allies, to negotiate a political solution.
Just limited bombing of Syria from the air makes us look weak at best. And if we kill lots of Syrians, it enables Assad to divert attention from the 1,400 he has gassed to death.
Also, who knows what else our bombing of Syria could set in motion?
But our response must not stop there.
We need to use every diplomatic tool we have to shame Assad, his wife, Asma, his murderous brother Maher and every member of his cabinet or military whom we can identify as being involved in this gas attack. We need to take their names before the U.N. Security Council for condemnation. We need to haul them before the International Criminal Court.
Yes, there's little chance of them being brought to justice now, but do not underestimate how much of a deterrent it can be for the world community to put the mark of Cain on their foreheads so they know that they and their families can never again travel anywhere except to North Korea, Iran and Vladimir Putin's dacha. It might even lead some of Assad's supporters to want to get rid of him and seek a political deal.
It is easy for Putin, China and Iran to denounce American bombing, but much harder for them to defend Syrian use of weapons of mass destruction.
Best of all, a moral response — a shaming — can be an unlimited response, not a limited one.
"Arm and shame" is how we best help the decent forces in Syria, deter further use of poison gas, isolate Assad and put real pressure on him or others around him to cut a deal. Is it perfect? No, but perfect is not on the menu in Syria.
Thomas Friedman writes for The New York Times.